REALTORS Confidence Improves

The National Association of REALTORS published its latest findings on how REALTORS are feeling about sales activity and there is a noticeable improvement in the findings.  Part of this might be due to seasonal issues but the could be discounted a bit because we are still in the depths of winter.  It does seem like things are starting to pick up in many segments.

Chart: HousingWire

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Has the Plymouth MN Housing Market Bottomed? Sure Looks Like We’re Close

The 2011 year end results are in.  Below is a chart of the home sales stats for Plymouth, MN.  Looking at the data, I think one would have to say it sure looks like we’ve bottomed.

Consider the following year over year statistics for the full years of 2010 vs. 2011:

  • New listings down 7%
  • Closed sales up 18%
  • Median sales price down by 1.6%
  • Average Sales Price up by 3.2%
Click to enlarge image

Plymouth MN Home Price Year End 2011

Chart: Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors

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Twin Cities Foreclosure and Short Sale Report Through December 2011

Check out the latest from the Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors with regard to Foreclosures and Short Sales in the Twin Cities.  The big take aways are that inventory is falling in all segments – traditional sellers, foreclosures, and short sales.

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Foreclosures Drop to Lowest Levels Since 2007 and Down 35% from 2010 Levels

The foreclosure business appears to be drying up.  According to Housing Wire, there were 205,000 foreclosure filings in the month of December 2011.  That’s the lowest monthly total since November 2007 and for the year 2011 was 35% lower than 2010.

Given the political football that foreclosures have become, it’s is difficult to know if this is a real slow down in foreclosures or if it’s just that the banks have slowed down the processing.

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Plymouth and Maple Grove Townhome Associations Reject Investors and Renters

I was showing townhomes today to some investors who would of course turn them in to nice rental units.  However, we are increasingly running in to associations that have newly created restrictions against investors.  Typically the way it works now is that they require a new owner to live in the unit for 2 years before turning it in to a rental unit.  Apparently the thinking is that accidental landlords will become better landlords and have better renters than professional investors.  Perhaps they are right.

The boards believe they are better off with owner occupied units no matter what the price.  It’s a difficult decision because it’s likely that prices will continue to slide for these big townhome complexes as they seek owner occupants.  There are plenty of investors ready to purchase but can’t because of the restriction.

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County Road 116 and Hackamore Intersection to Get Traffic Lights – Medina and Corcoran

The intersection of County Road 116 and Hackamore Road in Medina and Corcoran has increasingly been the seen of serious car crashes.  For those in Medina and Corcoran who have to cross that intersection throughout the day, it feels like you are running the gauntlet.  There is a convergence of traffic in both directions causing significant safety concerns.

According to the Star Tribune, Hennepin County has agreed to install traffic lights at the intersection of County Road 116 and Hackamore in Medina as it is increasingly more busy and seeing a higher number of serious accidents.  It’s a big relief for those who live in Foxberry Farms and Bridgewater who have high school aged drivers trying to cross this intersection at least twice per day as they travel to and from Wayzata High School and Providence Academy.

(County Road 116 and Hackamore Road pictured below)

Recently a group of citizens organized by Mark Osmanski, collected nearly 300 signed petitions from area home owners and presented them to county officials including Hennepin County Commissioner, Jeff Johnson, as well as the lead Traffic Engineer for Hennepin County, Jim Grube during a public meeting recently held and organized by Mr. Osmanski.  At this meeting were about 40 people in total including Commissioner Johnson and Mr. Grube as well as Medina Mayor Tom Crosby, Corcoran Mayor Ken Geunthner and Corcoran Police Chief Sean Gormley.  Key traffic engineering staff was also present at this meeting which was held on December 16th, 2011 at the Hennepin County Public Works Facility in Medina.

At this meeting led and spearheaded by Osmanski there was an excellent discussion of the issues and the county was very receptive to the issues and concerns presented by Osmanski and others who gave testimony to the harrowing experience they or their children have faced.  A few of those who had been involved in serious crashes also spoke.

Someone raised the question…”do we have to wait until someone dies?”  Mr. Grube immediately responded and said no that is not the case and that’s not how the county operates or makes it’s decisions.  I personally attended this meeting and thought Mr. Grube did a good job of handling the questions.  While there were some pointed questions at times, the group was very respectful making for a productive meeting.

It turns out in preparation for the meeting Grube and his team had done some additional homework on the road to update their data as well and he concluded that it was indeed time for the county to take a hard look at that intersection and that it probably made sense to install a light there especially prior to the road construction set to shut down Highway 55 west of Arrowhead Road which will divert more traffic up and down County Road 116.

During the meeting Medina Mayor Crosby as well as Corcoran Mayor Geunthner spoke and said that they would gladly support the effort and the funds were there if the cities need to contribute.  Both acknowledged they would need council approval but didn’t foresee an issue with that.  (Note: some days after the meeting, we received an e-mail stating that Hennepin County would go ahead with the traffic light and install it on a temporary basis.  Temporary for the county would be up  to 25 years.  Now according to the Star Tribune story, the cities will have  to pay for the electricity to run the light. That should not be an issue).

It’s expected the light will be installed this spring which can’t come soon enough for area residents and drivers.  This issue is a great example of citizens organizing and raising an issue with their government in a professional and productive manner.  The individuals that really needs to be applauded for their efforts are Peter Hayden, Kristin Toste, Deb Engebretson, Mike Mrosak and Mark Osmanski who led the campaign.

(Video) John Murphy on the Case-Shiller Index – Minneapolis Home Prices

The Case-Shiller Index was reported last week but I thought I’d add some additional commentary on the matter especially in light of the latest data on construction spending.

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Construction Spending Improves in November

The Census Bureau has reported this morning that construction spending is continuing to show signs of improvement in the U.S.  Calculated Risk has an excellent analysis of the construction report from the Census Bureau as well as additional graphs like the one below.

To understand just how enormous the housing bubble was, the construction spending report released today still shows that construction spending on residential projects is down 64% from the peak!  We have a long way to go, but the fact that things are starting to turn up after being down for so long is going to feel like a pretty big relief.

Construction Spending in U.S.

Mortgage Insurance Making a Comeback? November 2011 Underwriting Jumps by 10% Over October 2011

According to a story today in HousingWire, mortgage insurance companies wrote $5.6 billion worth of mortgage insurance during the month of November.  That’s a significant increase over the $5.1 billion underwritten in October 2011.  There had been much speculation that many of the mortgage insurers would just go away with the collapse of the housing market over the past several years.  The other trend that has come about is that the federal government, via the FHA, provided the vast majority of mortgage insurance out there as buyers moved to FHA financing.

If this trend continues it will indeed be positive news.  Many will benefit, not the least of which will be the American taxpayers.  If we start to see more conventional financing with PMI that will take the burden off the FHA.  This trend will also be good news for stake holders in the mortgage insurance companies…provided they can keep the defaults under control.

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Home Buyers Bullish – Sellers Absolutely Crushed – Is This What the Bottom of the Housing Market Looks Like?

So I saw this headline across HousingWire today.  It said, “Buyers, sellers continue to butt heads on homes prices.“  Okay, I get that.  It seems we read stories like this quite regularly.  This was a particularly big challenge in 2008 and 2009 when home prices were sliding off a cliff.  However, we still have challenges in the market where most sellers still believe their home is worth more than the market says it is.

Here’s what got me with the story.  Check this chart out from Housing Wire!  The gap in optimism between buyers and sellers has not been this large in nearly two decades and perhaps as long as this sentiment indicator has been tracking this.  It will be interesting to see what this portends in 2012.

There is clearly a growing sense of optimism with regard to housing.  However, I say that knowing that we’ve been through this a few times since the downturn occurred so perhaps again this is a false start.  That said, since the market crashed, we have not seen any improvement really from the home builders.  We are finally seeing signs of improvement and while we have a long ways to go to get back to pre-crash levels, the fact that there is a slight uptick in new construction, even if the numbers are low, will start to help everyone.

UPDATE:

I was communicating tonight with a @CraigKamman and @Dawabbit on Twitter about the subject matter above and it made me think of lions attacking their prey.  Sometimes when dealing with home buyers they have the sense of being the lions…the antelope of course is the seller.

 

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