The National Association of Realtors has come out with their 2008 forecast. They are looking for a modest recovery to the dramatic slowdown that hit in 2007.
The problem with the forecasts from the National Association of Realtors is that they have had to provide downward revisions to every monthly forecast for the past 12-13 months.
Perhaps we’ll know when the bottom is in when the National Association of Realtors starts consistently under forecasting the growth in home sales.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the housing market will improve from a steady unleashing of pent-up demand, and from a wide abundance of safer mortgage products. “The level of pent-up demand reaching the market next year is a bit uncertain, and it is possible for even higher home sales activity than we’re forecasting if buyers regain their confidence about the long-term benefits of homeownership. Over the near term, home sales are likely to be fairly flat as the lingering impact of the credit crunch filters through the system through the end of the year.â€
Until we see news like this fade away and the public is confident that there are no more financial time bombs waiting to go off, buyers will remain cautious.
There are incredible properties for sale and many deals to be had especially for today’s move up buyer, but there is a lack of confidence amongst buyers and unfortunately, that means there just aren’t as many of them in the market today as we generally see.
[...] Overly optimistic forecasts from the National Association of Realtors…NAR has had to revise its forecasts it seems every single month for what must be the past year. (You’ll know we’re at the bottom when they have a few months where they finally under forecast and the actual sales data surpasses their estimates). As a result of NAR’s’ constant optimism, there is a general loss of confidence in the data forecasts. [...]