2007 MN School Test Results – No Child Left Behind

The annual No Child Left Behind test results were recenlty released.

The Edina schools are again at the top of the heap followed by Wayzata.  I sorted the list by math scores.  It’s sortable by a number of different variables.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Happy Thanksgiving!

Picture: Jean Louis Jerome Ferris’ painting of the First Thanksgiving.

First Thanksgiving

Homebuilders Rethink Price Reductions: AP

The Associated Press is reporting that some home builders are reconsidering discounting their houses in order to woo buyers.  I’m not sure how they are going to stop doing this.  It will stop when the market finally firms.

Reality Check for Home Sellers: New York Times

I found this article courtesy of the excellent industry publication put forth by MAR (Minnesota Association of Realtors).  It is a reality check and wake up call for all of us in this business…buyers, sellers and their agents.

Austan Goolsbee is a professor of economics at the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business and a research fellow at the American Bar Foundation.  His article, “Reality Check for Home Sellers” was published September 27, 2007 in the New York Times.  He has some great quotes in his article, including:

“Economists tend to think people are crazy because they won’t sell their houses for less than they paid for them — and people think economists are crazy for thinking things exactly like that,” said Professor Christopher Mayer, director of the Paul Milstein Center for Real Estate at Columbia Business School and an authority on real estate economics.

Professor Mayer goes on to say what he tells his own family members:

“If you want to sell your house then you list it at the market price and you sell it,” he said. “If you don’t really want to sell then don’t put it on the market. But don’t say you want to sell and then set the price so high that you spend the year cleaning up every morning, having people walk through your living room and look in your medicine cabinets and reject you. That’s just painful — and expensive.”

And if this quote isn’t true about this market, I don’t know what is…

One source of difficulty arises from a basic fact of real estate economics: about half of home purchases are by people moving within a metropolitan area. If sellers can’t sell their houses because they want too much for them, they also can’t become buyers of new homes.

This is especially true with “move up” buyers where they have a tremendous opportunity in front of them right now, but they are unwilling to lower the price of their home they are selling by $20,000 – $30,000 in order to take advantage of the current discount on higher end homes where they will likely be able to save $50,000 – $100,000 by buying now.

People can’t stand to lose money even if there’s big opportunity in front of them.  Something has to give to get the market moving.

“The Pursuit of The Real Estate Truth”

Scott Einbinder published an excellent article entitled, “The Pursuit of The Real Estate Truth.”  He’s very direct if not a little harsh with Realtors and brokers, but I believe he’s speaking the truth about the real estate profession today.

Einbinder challenges the tried and true real estate service model:

The truth that our value proposition to the industry needs to stop focusing on ancient concepts like marketing plans, advertising gimmicks, open houses and misleading personal awards. (emphasis added). Almost every listing presentation I evaluate is dominated by the company’s marketing plan and advertising strategy and personal agent success.

We show these features to a seller with the hope that they will believe it works. With the hope that this concept of “exposure” will convince them that our value somehow has a relationship to our marketing and advertising strategy. Yet every real estate professional reading this article knows all too well that the old open house and classified ad is not there to sell the home. It is not there to accomplish our objective of exceeding our clients expectations. It is there to benefit us.

The leadership of our industry must step up and stop holding on to fiction and side agendas and demand their brokers and agents be authentic. I speak to agents every day who still believe their marketing and advertising plan sells houses, yet inventory levels have never been higher of unsold listings. Is it because you did not deploy your marketing strategy or does it have something to do with the inability to price and position the house correctly? Is your listing not selling because the three open houses you had did not draw enough people, or is it because 90% of the homes similar to your listing are on the market for less money that yours? Is it because you did not stage the home correctly filling it with candles and flowers, or because you were afraid to speak to the homeowner about a price reduction?

He goes on to challenge the idea that fancy marketing programs and brochures will sell houses:

The leadership of our industry must step up and stop holding on to fiction and side agendas and demand their brokers and agents be authentic. I speak to agents every day who still believe their marketing and advertising plan sells houses, yet inventory levels have never been higher of unsold listings. Is it because you did not deploy your marketing strategy or does it have something to do with the inability to price and position the house correctly? Is your listing not selling because the three open houses you had did not draw enough people, or is it because 90% of the homes similar to your listing are on the market for less money that yours? Is it because you did not stage the home correctly filling it with candles and flowers, or because you were afraid to speak to the homeowner about a price reduction?

The essence of our business must circle around client and customer benefit. As leaders we must demand our agents understand that value is derived from the ability to understand merchandising of real estate, having a clear strategy of contract negotiations, acute knowledge of financial and mortgage aspects, and an effective transaction management and risk mitigation protocol. This is what our industry is. This is where the firms that are winning are moving. This is truth.

As some of you may know, I have been a licensed real estate professional for four years.  This industry is still too focused on itself and not enough on the consumer, customer, and client.  I spent many years in the field of technology media as the tech driven customer centricity models started impacting many, many industries.  It seems like real estate may be one of the last for this movement to reach, but it is coming.

Challenges Facing Today’s Real Estate Consumers

CNN Money.com ran this story last month on what to do if you want to sell your home on your own and it got me thinking about the many challenges this housing market faces. Before I tackle that I want to make a few notes about the CNN Money FSBO (for sale by owner) story.

They state that the number of home owners who sold their homes on their own jumped from 12% to 20% from 2005 to 2007. (I am doubtful of those numbers and I’ll see if I can verify them. The numbers I have seen have typically been in the 12-16% range consistently for the past few years and that has not shown any growth, but it has remained flat). There’s a lot more that goes in to selling a home that just cutting out some commissions. Most FSBOs go on to hire a real estate broker to eventually sell their home.
There are a couple of interesting points that they make that I would challenge and it also leads me to more thinking on the challenges of the market as you’ll see below:

  • Open houses: they say be prepared to hold open houses on weekends. (Note, very few homes are sold off of open houses. Most agents hold homes open not to sell the home, but rather to pick up new buyer prospects).
  • Establish an asking price by getting an appraisal…yes, you can hire an appraiser for $325-$350 to do an appraisal. However, the market is very dynamic and we are seeing many situations where an appraisal means nothing. They are generally too high today.

Today’s market is more complicated than ever before in modern day real estate. There is a confluence of factors that are impacting the market that can confound even the savviest home buyer or seller as well as the most sophisticated and experienced real estate professional. What are those factors?

  • 24/7 news media with thousands of stories about the nation’s challenging housing market. (I just ran an advanced Google search to see how many entries had been made with “housing” in the past 24 hours…can you believe 1,080,000 entries showed up?!) This makes it very difficult for the real estate consumer to filter through this much information.
  • Technology has not only democratized access to information but also to the establishment of value. It used to be that the agents really drove value. Today it’s the consumer and much of that is being done on the internet.
  • Collapse of the subprime mortgage market and shifting qualifications from banks for new mortgages. Both professionals and consumers are confused about this. We talked in the office today about the idea that there is all kinds of mortgage money available but it seems few can qualify for it given the banks restrictive requirements. Hopefully this will continue to loosen but with the ongoing uncertainty with companies like CitiGroup, it’s difficult to predict when the stabilization will occur.
  • Deterioration of all levels of credit quality from prime to subprime. The loose money on Wall Street the past few years is still being unwound. The fact is none of the geniuses on Wall Street really know how big the losses will be. (If they know, they are letting the news out slowly…it’s my opinion that the losses will be significantly worse than the billions disclosed already).
  • Rising foreclosures and distressed sellers. There are many folks who aren’t going to be foreclosed on, but they are right on the edge and don’t have any room to move in the price of their homes.
  • Reluctance of sellers to accept the new market realities…each home is different, but generally speaking, housing prices are still too high and need to come down to get buyers to even write offers.
  • Buyers are trying to steal properties…many people are looking for the deal of the century…perhaps rightly so, but this makes for unrealistic expectations by buyers.
  • Collapse of the national homebuilders…before this is all over and the market turns upward, a few of the national homebuilders will need to file for bankruptcy. I would suggest that a few of them need to merge because right now it’s almost as though there is a fight to the death…i.e. last man standing once the dust clears. It’s a classic consolidation of a mature industry.
  • Overly optimistic forecasts from the National Association of Realtors…NAR has had to revise its forecasts it seems every single month for what must be the past year. (You’ll know we’re at the bottom when they have a few months where they finally under forecast and the actual sales data surpasses their estimates). As a result of NAR’s’ constant optimism, there is a general loss of confidence in the data forecasts.

All of that being said, I believe this market can get back on its feet but we will need to see confidence restored in the real estate buyers. Until then, the tide has clearly turned and the sellers need to start lowering their prices in order to entice buyers back in to the market. Once buyers feel they can buy property and minimize their downside exposure to future price depreciation, they will start buying again.

Howie’s Uptown Hamel Barbershop Robbed!

Howie’s Uptown Hamel Barbershop was robbed the night of November 1st. According to the much loved proprietor, Howie Schaber, he showed up for work on the morning of November 2nd to find that some lowlifes had broken in to his barbershop by breaking the glass on the front door and letting themselves in. They took his box of cash and checks and made off with over $1,000 of Howie’s hard earned money.

Howies_Uptown_Barbers_Home_of_the_$400_Haircut

If anyone knows who may have perpetrated this crime, please contact the Medina Police Department at 763- 473-9209.

There is a $2,000 reward leading to the arrest of these criminals.

Howie has been an institution in the Medina area cutting hair from his shop in Uptown Hamel for over 30 years. See this entry for more information about Howie’s Uptown Hamel Barbershop.

Criminals clearly don’t discriminate. Howie’s about the nicest guy you’ll ever meet.

National Association of Realtors Expects Modest Recovery in 2008 – Is This Reliable?

The National Association of Realtors has come out with their 2008 forecast. They are looking for a modest recovery to the dramatic slowdown that hit in 2007.

The problem with the forecasts from the National Association of Realtors is that they have had to provide downward revisions to every monthly forecast for the past 12-13 months.
Perhaps we’ll know when the bottom is in when the National Association of Realtors starts consistently under forecasting the growth in home sales.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the housing market will improve from a steady unleashing of pent-up demand, and from a wide abundance of safer mortgage products. “The level of pent-up demand reaching the market next year is a bit uncertain, and it is possible for even higher home sales activity than we’re forecasting if buyers regain their confidence about the long-term benefits of homeownership. Over the near term, home sales are likely to be fairly flat as the lingering impact of the credit crunch filters through the system through the end of the year.”

Until we see news like this fade away and the public is confident that there are no more financial time bombs waiting to go off, buyers will remain cautious.

There are incredible properties for sale and many deals to be had especially for today’s move up buyer, but there is a lack of confidence amongst buyers and unfortunately, that means there just aren’t as many of them in the market today as we generally see.

Short Sales – Debt Forgiveness and the IRS

Many homeowners today face a difficult challenge of being upside down in their homes.  Sellers need to know that all is not lost when that happens.  It takes a skilled agent or investor to help them out and they should seek help from a knowledgeable agent before falling in to despair thinking that there is nothing one can do.

Banks today are gearing up for more foreclosures and short sales.  Short sales occur when the lender comes up short on the loan they gave a home owner.  For example, let’s say a seller has a home he purchased for $350,000 with zero down.   His first mortgage is $250,000 and his second is $100,000.   If he has to sell it today, it might only be worth $315,000.  He will have about $22,000 or 7% in selling expenses.  He will net $290,000 which means he’s short $60,000 on his second mortgage.  A short sale of $60,000 must then be negotiated with the note holder for the second mortgage.

Should the bank agree to the short sale, they may lay claim to a deficiency judgement against the seller.  That would mean the seller would still be held responsible to pay that debt off in the future, but they could get out from under the home now.  However, many banks today are foregiving this indebtedness.  By wiping away $60,000 in debt, the IRS considers this taxable income at your earned rate.  The seller is then hit with a 1099 and asked for $10,000 – $20,000 in income tax depending upon his particular situation.  (Note: Congress is working on a bill right now that would eliminate the IRS from coming after sellers who have their debt foregiven in a short sale.  As of the writing of this column, the bill is still working its way through the Senate).

The IRS has a very helpful web site to help figure out these issues.  See “Questions and Answers on Home Foreclosure and Debt Cancellation.”   For additional information, here’s an excellent article on short sales and tax ramifications from Realtor Magazine.

Builders Association of the Twin Cities – New Web Site “Open The Door TC”

The Builders Association of the Twin Cities has launched a new site to start to be proactive with market information to counter the onslought of bad news so often reported by the main stream media.  The new web site is called Open The Door TC.

My hope is they will use this as a platform to get several local builders to start commenting on the marketplace.