John Murphy Reports

The National Association of Home Builders reported their monthly confidence levels report. It remains at a reading of 19 which is the same level it’s been for the past three consecutive months and it’s the lowest reading since the NAHB started this survey in 1985.

Here’s the press release from the NAHB.

Calculated Risk ran this report on the story. They provide a much better graphical depiction of the builders confidence levels than does the table provided by the NAHB.

In the Star Tribune article published on Saturday, Jim Buchta wrote:

However, the supply of new houses on the market is finally beginning to fall. Earlier this week the Builders Association of the Twin Cities said 380 permits were issued in November to build 615 new units. That’s a 22.8 percent decline in permits and a 29 percent decline in new units. So far this year, there has been a 30 percent decline in the total number of new units.

We are indeed finally starting to see some significant declines in builder inventory.  This needed to happen first in order for this market to have any hope of turning around.

The Minneapolis Association of Realtors has published this week’s market activity report. 

The Twin Cities housing market is well into its annual winter holiday pause. New listings have been minimal, yet total inventory of homes for sale remains at record levels and the number of sellers continues to far outweigh the number of buyers. Conservative lending standards and decreased consumer confidence seem to be keeping home buyers away despite low mortgage rates, motivated sellers, improved housing affordability and great housing stock.

Over the last three months, newly signed purchase agreements have declined by 20.0 percent from the same period in 2006 and 34.3 percent since 2005. Meanwhile, new listings have declined by only 1.8 percent. The number of homes for sale has dropped 5,000 units in the last 12 weeks but remains 12.9 percent higher than this time last year.

If you look at this detailed report that the association published, it’s interesting to note as you go through the 17 page pdf that the inventory is rising fastest and the sales are slowing the greatest in the lower end of the market.  Inventory is rising very rapidly in the $150,000 – $350,000 range.  This is likey due to the difficulty many are having with being either upside down on their home, or they get can’t financing to purchase because the subprime market has evaporated.