More Politics for the Housing Market

Many have said we’re in the perfect storm for housing…oversupply of homes, weakened demand and the credit crunch.   We can now certainly add to that the effort by politicians to make their mark on the housing market.

The Associated Press is reporting that  Congress is looking to make changes to the bankruptcy laws so that judges can reduce the amount of the mortgage to help out homeowners.  Everyone of these fixes like this will have some kind of effect that we are not yet aware of.  However, since it’s an election year, politicians from both sides of the isle need to make it look like they are doing something.

I cannot give legal advise as a real estate professional, but it’s my understanding that a bankruptcy is much worse on one’s credit report than is a foreclosure or pre-foreclosure.

If this bill goes through, you can bet we’re going to see aggressive tactics by lawyers to convince homeowners to file bankruptcy so they can collect their fees.

It still seems to me, the best situation that struggling homeowners should pursue is to sell their home in a short sale situation.  Sure they run the risk that the bank might not accept the short sale.  In that case, they could consider going the foreclosure route or in a worst case scenario…bankruptcy.   If homeowners pursue the short sale route, they might also run the risk that their bank might not forgive their debt.  They might also be hit with a tax bill from the IRS.  However, from what I’m hearing, Congress is looking to pass a bill that would get the IRS off the backs of homeowners who have their debts forgiven in a short sale.  Additionally, many banks today are forgiving the debt. Even they realize, sometimes, it’s best just to move on.

The credit markets and housing markets will right themselves eventually.   If Congress wants to have an impact, they should encourage the States to require all mortgage brokers and loan officers be licensed and take continuing education.  While that is not a guarantee to clean up the business, it’s a major step in the right direction without completely fouling up the system.

Washington Mutual Sheds Jobs – Swears Off Subprime

Washington Mutual was a good sized player in the subprime markets.  They also have been very active in piggyback loans or second mortgages.  The news out tonight is that they are shutting down many offices and laying off thousands.

What I wonder about is earlier in 2007, we, as agents, heard that banks were staffing up their “Loss Mitigation” departments in order to be able to deal with all the foreclosures, delinquencies and short sales.  But I wonder, given the massive layoffs already announced in the banking sector, will it be even more difficult now to get through to a banker to discuss a short sale or get a decision on a foreclosure?  Only time will tell.

National Association of Realtors – Holding Steady for 2008

The National Association of Realtors came out with new estimates for 2007 and 2008 home sales. They are showing a very slight improvement to their previous estimate. This is a change for them as they have been revising downward with every estimate for nearly the past year.

Given that we are still seeing news such as UBS taking another $10 billion write down due to subprime losses, it’s certainly going against the grain by forecasting stable sales in 2008.

If you want to know whether or not you should trust the forecasting lately from the National Association of Realtors, read this entry over at Calculated Risk.

The Problem with Zillow

Zillow has become a very popular real estate web site but the challenge I’ve always had with it is you can’t really trust the values it cranks out for houses.  My research has shown that it’s often within 10% of a homes value, but it’s just difficult to know which side of 10% is it on.

In the case of my listing at 4085 Shorewood Trail, the home’s value has jumped around on Zillow.  A couple of week’s ago when I checked, it was showing up at $1.34 million.   Today, it’s showing a value of $1.24 million.  However, the challenge is the home is now listed at $1,070,000.  It’s been on the market for 96 days.

So who’s closer to being correct on the price?  Zillow or me?  As a professional, full time real estate agent, I work this market every day and I take my pricing very seriously.  I’m sure it’s difficult for homeowners across the country if they look to Zillow for a price and then call in an agent to give them a market analysis on their home.  I know I would be frustrated is there was this much disparity between what Zillow says my house might be worth and what some agent might think.

Elm Creek Development in Plymouth, MN Withdrawn – 1700+ Units

As reported in the Lakeshore Weekly News, Erickson Retirement Communities withdrew their proposal to build over 1,700 units where the Elm Creek golf course currently exists on Highway 55 in western Plymouth.  It appears the developers will regroup and likely approach the City of Plymouth at a later date with a new plan. Click here for the location of the Elm Creek golf course.
The City of Plymouth has seen a few senior housing projects developed recently including the 400+ unit development by Trillium Woods as well as Vicksburg Crossing located at Highway 55 and Vicksburg near Lowe’s.

Super Garages: The Next Luxury in Luxury Homes!

For some reason I never posted this story written by BusinessWeek that ran in 2006, but it’s worth a read today especially given the National Association of Realtors study of what home buyers are looking for in 2007…oversized garages was at the top of that list! See my earlier post about the trend toward larger garages.

If you’re looking for a home in Medina that has one of these super garages, you have to consider my listing at 4085 Shorewood Trail in Foxberry Farms. It’s listed for $1,070,000. This home has a spectacular 5 car garage which includes:

  • Insulated and heated
  • Room for 5 cars
  • Oversized garage doors
  • Hot water
  • Cable TV
  • Telephone
  • Epoxy floors
  • Stairs to the lower level utility room
  • 1400 square feet in the garage
  • 10′ ceiling height

If you’re looking for a home to go along with the garage, this would be it. It has 5500 finished square feet with 5 bedrooms, 4 baths and is located in a cul-de-sac in Foxberry Farms.

“Another Tax Hike? Medina Residents Protest” Star Tribune

The Star Tribune ran this story yesterday about the proposed tax increases in Medina in order to pay for some roads.  Mayor Tom Crosby appears to be advocating a pay-as-you-go method to pay for the roads.  Traditionally, capital improvements such as roads have been paid for by bonds issued by the city.   That spreads the cost out over 20-30 years which I believe is the best way to pay for such items.

Hopefully the City Council will change their position and pay for these items by bonding instead of pay-as-you-go.

Toll Brothers Swings to a Loss of $81.8 million

Toll Brothers, the luxury home builder, swung to a loss for its fiscal fourth quarter which ended October 31, 2007.  This was Toll Brothers first quarterly loss in 21 years.  They are arguably the best run of the national home builders and even they have finally had to succumb to the slowdown.

“By many measures, Fiscal 2007 was the most challenging of the forty years that Toll Brothers has been in business,” Robert Toll, chairman and chief executive officer, said in a statement. “1974 was perhaps rougher, but the difficult times only lasted one year.”

Highlights of the earnings report includes:

  • Net loss of $81.8 million compared to a net income of $173.8 million a year ago
  • Loss included writedowns of $314.9 for homes they will have to sell at a loss
  • Revenue fell by 35% to $1.17 billion for the quarter
  • Net signed contracts fell by 48% to $365.3 million
  • The company expects to deliver between 3,900 – 5,100 homes in 2008 priced between $630,000 – $650,000 (note: this is 3 times the median price of a home in America today which is $207,800 according to the National Association of Realtors’ latest report).

Toll Brothers was late to the party here in the Twin Cities.  They have developments in Eagan and Maple Grove as was noted by my post earlier this year.

30 Year Fixed Rates at 5.75% – Mortgage Applications Jump!

It’s hard to believe, but people with good credit who would be considered for a prime mortgage are seeing rates as low as 5.75% for a 30 year fixed rate conforming loan. That is absolutely fantastic! If you are stuck with an ARM that is going to adjust in the next few months or even year, you should consider refinancing in to a fixed rate product given these low rates.

On another note, the Mortgage Bankers’ Association released their latest data this week that showed a jump in mortgage applications.

  • The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is up 4.5 percent to 706.8 from 676.5.
  • The four week moving average is up 3.1 percent to 431.0 from 418.2 for the Purchase Index, while this average is up 6.7 percent to 2342.5 from 2196.2 for the Refinance Index.

Twin Cities Real Estate – A Look Through 2010 by Chris Galler, Minnesota Association of Realtors

“What goes up, must come down: thoughts about the residential real estate market through 2010″ is one of the more lucid articles I’ve read about the state of the Twin Cities real estate market. The article was written by Chris Galler, SVP for the Minnesota Association of Realtors (MAR). The Minnesota Association of Realtors has done an excellent job of trying to prepare agents for the coming changes in Minnesota real estate. They have always spoken honestly about the challenges facing the local real estate market.

We all know about the rising supply of houses for sale due to overbuilding, low interest rates, and lax lending standards. What most people don’t realize is that part of the slowdown we are currently feeling is in part due to a major demographic shift that is afoot right now in the State of Minnesota. There is real concern that there aren’t enough young people coming up to buy the homes from the baby boomers. Add to that the rapid aging of the population and one has to realize that the tide has turned in Minnesota.

The housing stock has essentially been built for married couples with children. However, that category of buyer is a dying breed in many ways. There will be a rapid rise in households without children. They may include a married couple without children or a single mom, single dad or single person. Those buyers aren’t likely going to be interested in the 4,000 – 5,000 square foot two story often found in today’s suburbs. As a result, I believe we will continue to see ongoing pricing pressure for many of these bigger suburban homes for years to come.

There will be cities that will handle this demographic change better than others. For example, it’s my opinion that cities such as Maple Grove and Medina will continue to attact the traditional married couple with children who are looking for the traditional two story home in a nice neighborhood with good schools, amenities and services. In the case of Maple Grove, they are also making sure they have housing to meet the needs of the various households that are being formed today and they have an excellent span of housing options for people.

While we are currently down about 4.5% in prices this year and quite possibly will be down another 5% in 2008, no one that I know of is predicting a big drop in home prices here in Minnesota. That being said, sellers need to be aware of the fact that the market is not likely to bail them out of their home any time soon given the shifts that are taking place demographically in Minnesota.