“Crisis Persists, But Disaster Averted,” Larry Kantor, Barclays Capital

This is an interesting analysis piece running in the Financial Times today.  Larry Kantor is head of research at Barclays Capital, a global investment firm.

He starts his article with the following sentence, “the events of the past couple of weeks have greatly diminished the risk of a financial disaster.”

Below are additional key quotes from Mr. Kantor:

This means any subsequent bouts of extreme illiquidity and general withdrawal from counterparty risk will be dealt with and should prove temporary.

So, an all-clear whistle is unlikely to sound in credit markets over the next few months.  Nevertheless, as far as the global economy is concerned, the expansion has remained largely on track throughout the credit turmoil.

Some help will be provided but do not expect a silver bullet that will quickly stabilise the housing market and limit losses to mortgage lenders. Ultimately, house prices will have to find a clearing level and losses will have to be realised.

The silver lining in declining house prices is that activity – sales and starts – is likely to find a bottom well before the end of the year.

“I think the federal government and the Federal Reserve will succeed,” Ed Yardeni

“The government of last resort is working with the lender of last resort to shore up the housing and credit markets to avoid Great Depression 2,” says Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Associates. “I think the federal government and the Federal Reserve will succeed.”

Ed Yardeni has long been seen as a sensible Wall Street analyst and prognosticator.  It’s interesting to read his comments in this Financial Times article entitled, “Washington sends in cavalry to fight crisis.”

New Home Sales Drop to 13 Year Low

Sales of newly constructed homes fell for the fourth consecutive month and are now at a level not seen since 1995!

Calculated Risk has done a fabulous job of analyzing the data points and creating their fantastic charts as usual.  You’ll want to read this entry as well as this one.

The charts look absolutely horrific which I think is wonderful, wonderful news!  It sure looks like the bottom is within sight for the U.S. housing market.  It doesn’t mean it will turn on a dime, but the retrenchment has been unprecedented in its speed and scope.  Housing was supposed to be slow and steady…instead, it’s acted like a tech stock in 1999 – 2001.  Skyrocketed and then crash and burn.

“Top 15 Updates to Maximize Resale Value” HGTV

HGTV has a housing site called FrontDoor.   They published this article on the top 15 updates sellers can do to maximize their resale.

One of my earlier posts discussed that sellers often have to spend thousands of dollars getting their home ready to sell in today’s market.

Twin Cities Home Prices Drop 10% – S&P/Case-Shiller Index

The highly watched S&P/Case-Shiller Index was released this morning showing a 20 city composite decline of 10.7% across the nation and a 10% decline for Twin Cities home prices. The 20 city index is displayed graphically below.

Here’s the AP story on the release as well as MarketWatch’s report.

Case-Shiller Index 3-25-08

Twin Cities Pending Sales Activity – Set to Peak in 6 Weeks?

I’ve been paying close attending to the pending sales activity from the Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors.  They publish this excellent report just about every week of the year.

You can see by the chart below that pending sales activity has been ticking upward since the second week of Janaury.  Remember, pendings sales are homes that have contracts on the home but they have not yet closed.  Contingent sales do not count towards pended contracts.

What’s interesting to look at is to see when the pending sales activity peaks.  It seems to peak in mid April and perhaps goes as long as the first or second week of May and then we start the long slide downward towards the bottom in early January.

Closed sales usually peak in May or June because of the lagging effect between the time a home pends and when it closes.

In other words, we are presently in peak selling season right now through the next 4-6 weeks.  It doesn’t mean we won’t be able to sell homes after May 15th, but if history is our guide, the overall activity will start to slow.

Click to enlarge:

Twin Cities Pending Sales Chart

This chart above may be a little difficult to read.  If you’d like a better view of it, you can launch the pdf and view page 3 for the pending sales activity.

 

“Housing Woes Are an Opportunity for First-Timer Home Buyers” Suze Orman

Here’s another story with a more positive angle to the housing market woes.  Suze Orman, host of many financial shows on TV and radio as well as author of several top selling financial books, discusses the opportunities for first time home buyers.

The fact is there is opportunity galore for buyers at any level.  Stay tuned…more positive news stories are about to break.

Twin Cities Real Estate Market Report – Week of March 24, 2008

The Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors just released the latest weekly report.  The headline number this week is that pending sales were only 6.9% behind last year’s pace.  Typically that number has been between 15-25% each week.  It will be interesting to see if this trend continues throughout the spring.  In my opinion, the pending sales number is the most important data point if there were just one data point we needed to watch.

Here is the note from the association:

Potential home buyers waiting for even more new inventory to hit the market may be waiting a long time. For the week ending March 15, there were almost 300 fewer properties put on the market in the Twin Cities than during the same week in 2007—a decline of 12.0 percent. And the number of new listings on the market in the last three months is 6.9 percent behind the same time one year ago. So while total inventory remains high, the frenzied peak of seller activity appears to be behind us.

The number of newly signed purchase agreements jumped significantly from the previous week; and for the same time period comparison last year was down only 8.9 percent. While this is a positive indication that buyers may be beginning to recognize the tremendous opportunities available, we are by no means out of the woods yet. Let’s at least hope we’re out of the snow.

Homes Sales Rise in February – But Don’t Get Excited Just Yet

The National Association of Realtors published its monthly sales data and reported that sales actually increased from January to February.  Apparently many prognosticators and forecasters were looking for a decrease.  I would hope we’ll continue to see month over month increases as we move all the way to summer.

What the headlines don’t say is that sales volume is down 23% compared to the same period last year and home prices are down 8%.

It’s not rocket science, and I have said this time and time again…if we want to get this housing market turned around, sellers need to lower their prices and we’ll see sales activity pick up which will have a massive ripple effect throughout the economy.

Calculated Risk has a good analysis on the data released today.  This chart below shows just how far sales volume has fallen in ’08 compared to ’07.

Existing Sales

Calculated Risk has built a nice chart of housing inventory:

 Existing Housing Inventory

There is no way we’re going to lower the inventory levels without having a sale.  Think Macys.  Think Ford.  When they need to move traffic, they have a sale.

“Options Abound – In Every Price Range” Star Tribune

“With today’s overload of houses, buyers have plenty to pick from — more in some price ranges, less in others.”  This is the first of many stories to come where the media will finally understand that there are many, many opportunities for buyers out there in this market.

Lynn Underwood spoke to me about a week and a half ago for this story.  She quotes me as follows:

John Murphy, Edina Realty sales agent, said that in his experience, some owners of houses priced under $250,000 can’t afford their mortgage and are trying to sell.

Where will you find the most options? Million-dollar-plus homes show the deepest inventory at 20 months, but upper-bracket properties always take longer to sell and have a smaller pool of buyers. Even if those houses don’t sell, the owners are more likely to still buy a second house because many have the financial means to own both properties.

“Sellers in that price range may be able to hang onto homes longer and weather the storm,” Murphy said.

It’s anyone’s guess how long it will it take for the housing surplus to shrink, and supply and demand to balance out. But Murphy doesn’t see a turnaround anytime soon.

“With inventory still 10 to 12 percent higher than it was one year ago, and pending sales activity down typically 15 to 25 percent depending on the week, it doesn’t look like a turn to me.”

Although the number of houses for sale is still at record levels, new listings are being added more slowly. The number of new listings the week ending March 8 is down 10 percent from last year. For the first three months of this year, new listings have dropped 5.6 percent when compared to last year.

What’s it going to take to burn off some of that existing inventory? Sellers can do their part by making sure houses are in “model-home” condition and aggressively priced to move.

“Sellers have to price realistically according to market conditions, which many still are reluctant to do,” Murphy said.

Lenders and banks can help by speeding up the selling process of the growing number of distressed and foreclosed properties, he said.

“It’s not uncommon for it to take 30 to 60 days to hear back from a bank on an offer,” said Murphy. “The faster they respond, the faster we can move through all the bank-owned property and help get this market back on its feet.”

Â