I sense a slight change afoot in the way the media covers the “U.S. Housing Crash.”  I am already starting to see it with some slightly positive stories that are beginning to appear on TV programs and news websites like this one.
There are fabulous opportunities for buyers out there right now, but the media has scared the hell out of people.  It’s more than a little frightening to think of the power and influence we have allowed the media to have in our lives in America.  Do people not know that there is both a political and a business agenda behind the news stories they consume?

For the past two years, all we’ve heard about is the doom and gloom and the ever spiraling collapse of the housing market.  Soon you will start to hear about the opportunistic buyers and investors who step back in to the market.

I believe there are thousands and thousands of people who are trying to bottom pick the housing market.  There won’t be a bell that rings when we’re at bottom.  By the time you see a turn up in the sales statistics and the better sounding news reports from the media, the bottom in the housing market will be long gone.

I had the displeasure of watching some network television this weekend as well as do some general business reading over the Easter weekend.  Listening and reading several sources in the media, it’s clear that the group think there is that the U.S. is currently in a recession.

I am now constantly hearing things like “this tough economy,” “difficult economic times,” “how long will the recession last?”   Perhaps all these prognosticators are right, but count me as a doubting Thomas until I see the data.   There are many industries that are continuing to plug along nicely.  Yes, housing and the construction markets are down big and retail is showing some signs of softness, but U.S. manufacturing continues at a nice pace and the fields of technology and agribusiness are doing just fine, thank you.

Perhaps the media says the U.S. is in recession because they are in a recession or their own downturn.  Perhaps it’s not a recession, but a fundamental change in which advertisers reach prospective buyers?

We are in an election year and there are many in the media that want to see a Democrat in the White House.  The drumbeat of bad news will likely continue for several more months until their man or woman is in the White House.

We are getting very tired of the snow here in Minnesota.  Yes, I know it’s March, but Easter is tomorrow and we continue to get snow.  Yesterday it snowed all day and throughout the night making the roads very slick.  As I was driving in to the office this morning, I came across this car that was hung up in a tree!

You know it’s going to be a bad weekend when this happens!  It doesn’t appear like anyone was hurt (thank God!) but I’m sure it was quite a ride!  Cars tend to travel at speeds of 50+ MPH on this road.

The Wall Street Journal is running this story on the front page today (subscription may be needed to access story) highlighting the problems smaller builders are having in this housing downturn.

It turns out, at least according to the data source for this story which is The Federal Reserve and Foresight Analytics, Minnesota has one of the highest delinquency rates in the country for builders. See graph below.

New construction has been particularly hard hit during this down cycle, but despite the fact that building permits are down about 50% from the peak in 2005, builders need to continue to slow down their building and sell off what they have.

It doesn’t help the home builders when the cancellation rates continue at extraordinary levels. Dow Jones is reporting that the average cancellation rate for home builders is 43%.