Twin Cities Real Estate Market Report – Week of May 12, 2008 – New Listings Continue to Decline

The Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors are out with their weekly report.  Below is their commentary.

In Minnesota, warmer weather typically equates to listing increases. But compared to previous years, the run-up to the 2008 summer selling season in the Twin Cities housing market has been meek. The number of new listings for the week ending May 3 was 16.6 percent behind the same time last year—the ninth consecutive week of decline relative to a year ago. Buyer activity is also slower. Over the last three months, pending sales are hovering around a 16 percent year-over-year decline.

This week’s edition of the MAAR Weekly Market Activity Report features updated figures for several important metrics. As the spring season begins, the Average Days on Market Until Sale decreased to 154 while the Percent of Original List Price Received at Sale increased slightly to 91.7. The Housing Affordability Index decreased to 151, due to slight seasonal increases in sales price and interest rates. Finally, the Months Supply of Inventory increased to 10.2 months; a 5- to 6-month supply rate is considered indicative of a balanced market.

It’s nice to see the selling activity starting to slow consistently.  9 consecutive weeks of lower listing activity is a good thing to see; additionally, the number of homes for sale now are finally lower than they were a year ago.  Buyers are still sluggish as pending sales activity remains soft.  We need to start to see that moving consistently in to the negative single digits to really start to see some improvement.

Speed Traps on I-394 Minnetonka Area for Mother’s Day Weekend

Just a heads up that the police have been pulling over several speeders this weekend on the stretch of I-394 near Ridgedale in Minnetonka.  What reminded me to post something was this story in the Star Tribune this weekend about the police pulling over “speeders” (including metro transit bus drivers) who are going 60 MPH in the 55 MPH road.

I have been meaning to write about the road situation in the Twin Cities.  It’s just downright silly that Interstate 394 has a 55 MPH speed limit.  We spent millions of tax dollars upgrading this freeway and we can only drive 55 MPH.

Welcome to Minnesota…as Joe Soucheray says, “The state where absolutely nothing is allowed.”

Any BTW, watch out for driving 60 MPH this weekend.  You’re likely to get a speeding ticket.

Happy Mother’s Day!

Twin Cities Homes Prices Drop 12.5% According to Case-Shiller Index

On April 29th, the S&P/Case-Shiller Index was released with data through the month of January 2008. It shows continued and consistent declines in pricing throughout the U.S. The Twin Cities is showing a decline of 12.5% leaving the Twin Cities about in the middle of the pack of cities studied by Case-Shiller.

Here is the press release and I’ve graphed the data below for 4 months running.

Case-Shiller Index 4-29-08

Zillow Reports Home Values Fall Back to 2005 Levels

Zillow reported their quarterly report on U.S. home values.  Their current report shows U.S. home values back to where they were in 2005….I would say that actually sounds conservative to me.  I’m seeing home values fall back to 2002-2003 levels in some cases.

Here’s the article from RIS Media along with the direct link to Zillow’s report.  They have an excellent interactive map of the U.S.

It has been my experience that on an individual property basis, Zillow consistently over estimates the properties true value in the market today.

Twin Cities Real Estate Market Report – Week of May 5, 2008

From this week’s report from the Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors:

Ring the bell, sound the alarms, shout from the mountaintops: the number of homes for sale in the Twin Cities region as of today is less than the number for sale at this point last year, a new benchmark which marks an encouraging sign that the market is in an early stage of recovery. This is the first time since MAAR began tracking inventory figures that we have been able to show a year-over-year decline in listing supply. There are currently 32,448 residential properties for sale, a decline of 134 units from this time in 2007. With sellers still holding back on putting their homes on the market (new listings are down 11.4 percent from last year over the last three months), this downward year-over-year trend in inventory should continue into the summer. This week’s edition of the MAAR Weekly Market Activity Report features a new figure for our Supply-Demand Ratio of 7.53, which means there are approximately 7.53 homes on the market for each buyer in May— up 12.9 percent from May 2007 when the figure was 6.67.

It will be interesting to see if this trend stays in place where we are finally starting to see a slowdown in the number of listings.

For more great research reports from the association check this link out.

Plymouth, MN Home Supply Stands at 2 Years for Homes over $700,000

There are presently 50 homes for sale in Plymouth, MN that are listed at $700,000 or higher.

During each of the past two years, 8 homes were sold over $700,000 during the first four months of the year (Jan. 1st through April 30th- 2007 Sales and 2008 Sales for this period). So, for the past two years, the market has been absorbing about 2 of these homes in this category per month. With 50 homes for sale, that means the months supply is 25 for homes priced over $700,000.
The other factor here is that Lennar is now a player in this market segment more so than they have been in the past. During the first four months of 2007, only one Lennar home showed up in the sales with their Taryn Hills development near Vicksburg and County Road 47/Hackamore. During the same period in 2008, two showed up. They WILL have a bigger impact on share of homes sold in this segment for the next couple of years and that means there will be an even bigger impact on individual homeowners who are trying to sell their $700,000+ home in Plymouth – competition is very, very steep.