John Murphy Reports

More worries that the U.S. Government (i.e. you and me the tax payers) will have to pony up billions to keep Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac alive drove the stocks of these companies down 22% and 25%, respectively yesterday.

Last week Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac came out and said they would try to preserve capital by not buying as many mortgages.  Well, that goes against the charter they have by the U.S. Government pseudo public/private charter.

For more insights as to what may happen, the Wall Street Journal has published its lead editorial on the matter today.

The National Association of Home Builders surveys its membership each month and publishes a sentiment index.  Needless to say, it has been in free fall for a couple of years.

Calculated Risk has an excellent graphic of this index.

In a sign that builders continue to cut production of new homes, this report came out this morning showing housing starts at their lowest level in 17 years.

The Twin Cities Area Association of Realtors just published this week’s report.  The biggest news is pending sales activity is up 21% compared to the same week last year.  As Jeff Allen notes below, one week doesn’t make a trend, but we are clearly running above last year’s numbers and with listing inventory trending lower by 5-10% each week, we are finally starting to see some of the inventory overhang diminish.

Here’s Jeff’s note:

Pending sales for the week ending August 9 were a startling 21.0 percent higher than one year ago, posting 900 sales as compared to 744 a year ago. While one week of such robust increase doesn’t justify the opening of stored champagne bottles, it is another welcome sign of reviving buyer demand. While a highly productive number in its own right, the year-over-year increase is somewhat amplified by just how slow August of last year was, as that is the specific month in which tightening lending standards began to take root.

New listings declined by 11.3 percent for the same time period comparison, and the total number of active properties for sale is currently 6.4 percent lower than it was one year ago. With foreclosure and short sale activity increasing, the declining supply underscores just how many traditional sellers are waiting this market out by not placing their homes up for sale.