John Murphy Reports

Below is some analysis I did for the City of Plymouth, MN – Best Place to live by Money Magazine 2008.

I saw the data released from the Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors that showed Plymouth home prices were down only 3.6% through November year to date.  That seemed odd to me since almost everything else is down 10-15%..see Case-Shiller Index.  However, as I’ve come to learn with statistics, they can be misleading.

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Below is a rolling 12 month look at Plymouth, MN residential real estate sales.  The periods run from Dec. 2006-November 2007 and December 2007-November 2008.  Note the median price is slightly lower at -5.5%.  Units sold is down 12.95% with overall transaction volume declining by 15.65%…fewer units sold at increasingly lower price points.

(Click on any of the images below to enlarge and open in a new window)

Below is the breakout of just the distressed and foreclosure sales for the same periods.  Note the significantly lower sale price averages but also note the large increase in transactions and dollar volume.

Foreclosures and distressed sales have basically doubled in the past year and now represent twice as many transactions in 2008 vs. 2007.   Their impact is taking up a larger share of the number of transactions (16.14% vs. 7.35%), but comparatively, not quite as much impact on the overall transaction volume (11.89% vs. 5.43%).

The number of distressed and foreclosure properties has tripled since 2006.  It’s on pace to almost double for 2008 vs. 2007.  The data below shows 2006, 2007 and 2008 through November.

The foreclosure and distressed sales now represent a $30 million market in Plymouth, MN and it’s growing rapidly.  No one knows what 2009 will look like and whether or not we’ll keep on this path of doubling.  It seems hard to believe that that would happen, but it’s not far fetched to think we’ll see $45 million in distressed and foreclosed sales in 2009.

And perhaps the most interesting chart to keep our eyes on is the one below where I’ve tracked the distressed and foreclosure sales by month beginning with January 2006.  I will update this each month and be sure to post it.

Given the increases we’ve been seeing the past few months, it seems likely that this trend will continue.  What will be particularly helpful to see is when this wave finally starts to decline.  At that point, the bottom won’t be far away!

If you’re seeking a great opportunity to purchase a bank owned luxury townhome in the Twin Cities, and particularly, the western suburbs, then you’ll want to sign up for this customized search at www.BankOwnedLuxuryTownHomes.com to receive VIP priority access to the best opportunities in the marketplace.  You’ll have access to the same information I can see along with photos and descriptions.
I am increasingly seeing more luxury townhomes also go back to the bank.  The definition of luxury is different for everyone, but I would put that number around $400,000 for a townhome.

There will be an opportunities coming up in the Charles Cudd neighborhood, Medina Highlands, as well as one in Plymouth called The Villages.