Housing to Boost GDP, First Time in Years According to Fannie Mae

WASHINGTON - OCTOBER 21:  The headquarters of ...

Image by Getty Images via @daylife

Fannie Mae economists are out with their forecasts for 2012 and they expect the housing market to have a modest, positive impact in the overall GDP numbers in 2012.  This is the first time in years that housing will be a net plus to the GDP rather than the net negative drain it as been for the past few years.

Fannie Mae says, “economic indicators suggest a pickup in construction of apartment buildings and a modest uptick in single-family construction. Still, there are challenges that could emerge derailing 2012 growth projections.”

Enhanced by Zemanta

National Survey Reveals New Normal – Consumer Expectations on Homeownership

American FamilyThis is an excellent detailed analysis of the state of the housing consumer when it comes to real estate and homeownership issues.  For those who like to study this kind of material, this is well worth your read.  For those of you who are investors, or thinking about becoming an investor, it certainly appears that there will be plenty of supply of tenants for the foreseeable future.  It’s been my belief since we housing crash which began in 2007 and then soon followed by the financial crash in 2008 that those events were so massive that they may have permanently changed the psyche of the country when it comes to home ownership.  That said, do I think we are headed to a 50% ownership society and 50% rentals?  No.  But we won’t ever see the 70% ownership numbers again in my lifetime and I would expect we’ll just continue to drift closer to 60/40.  While those numbers don’t look huge, they are indeed transformational for the industry, American society and culture.

New Custom HomeBig Builder is the industry news source for large national home builders.  The study is called, “Housing 360: Insights into Homeownership” where they surveyed 3,000 people and conducted six focus groups. They need to stay on top of the multi-billion dollar new home business and it’s very interesting to read their analysis and insight regarding today’s home consumer and what they are thinking. Apparently many are in the same boat as one gentleman was quoted as saying, “If I could get a full-time job with a decent salary, I’d buy a house.”

Some key highlights of the Housing 360 report:

  • 7 out of 10 think now is a good time to buy a home
  • Many who bought homes during the boom wish they hadn’t – (perhaps a little buyer’s remorse?)
  • 25% of survey respondents are underwater on their homes
  • 72% still believe it’s important to own their own home
  • 67% say that their current home is fine – general across the board apathy among potential home buyers
  • 47% are concerned that if they did sell in order to go buy a new home, would they get a fair price for their current home?
  • Of those surveyed who are renters, only 25% said their current home is fine, however, 45% of the renters said there is no urgency to move
  • Concerns are high about down payment expectations and whether or not they will even qualify for a mortgage

This is by far the most informative article I have read about the current state of potential home buyers and sellers.  The National Association of REALTORS publishes a report each year, but all too often that just seems to come off as too self serving.  This, on the other hand, is very insightful.  I highly recommend you read the article and for those who want the actual research report, please see Hanley Wood Housing 360: Insights into Homeownership.

On a more local note, while this report details what the home builders must do to attract new construction home buyers, clearly the home builders operating in Plymouth, Maple Grove, and Medina Minnesota are doing an outstanding job given the recent explosion in construction and sales activity. To stay on top of what’s happening locally in the northwestern suburbs of Minneapolis, be sure to check out Northwest Plymouth where I continue to chronicle the rebirth of the Twin Cities home construction market.

Enhanced by Zemanta

Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Back in Vogue with Investors – New York Times

Wall Street investors are betting that the worst is either behind us in the U.S. housing market or the downsize risk is at least accounted for and discounted with the cheap price of MBS today according to the New York Times.

If you recall Mortgage Backed Securities were all the rage in the investment community leading up to the housing crash.  They were then shed like the plagued and the Federal Reserve has been one of the only significant buyers of MBS in the past couple of years.  Now prices are up 15% and appear like they will continue to rise.  I suspect they’ll continue to climb for the next couple of years as the housing market goes in to full recovery mode and the Federal Reserve can start to unload the approximate $1-$2 Trillion it holds in MBS.

The money interests are now betting that we’ve seen a turn in the housing market.  Please don’t be confused with higher home prices.  I think we’ll continue to see overall home price declines in 2012.  It’s been my sense that we’ll start to see a consistent rise in home prices by the spring of 2013 but by then investments in housing will be significantly higher once the printed numbers show house price appreciation.

Enhanced by Zemanta

U.S. Economy Set to Rocket in 2012?

Here is a recap of recent news about the U.S. economy.  After reading these stories and headlines, the ocean liner known as the U.S. economy appears to be ready for take off.  Do you believe it?

ADP Private Payrolls Increase by 206,000 for November 2011

Consumer Confidence Surges!

Chicago PMI beats expections and prints 62!

Pending Homes Sales Jump 10%

Black Friday Sales Hit Record – U.S. Consumers Back with a Vengeance!

And yet, economists have started to reduce their expectations on U.S. GDP growth for 2012.  In fact, the final Q311 U.S. GDP numbers were just revised down to 2.0%.

So what if everyone’s getting it wrong?  What if we are going to see 3-4% growth?  After all, the Federal Reserve and many of the central bankers around the world just provided “coordinated action” providing significant global easing with their respective monetary policies.  Markets are up 3-5% around the world right now.  It appears everything is fixed.  Is it?  Check out Mish’s take on maximum intervention by central bankers. Do you believe we have turned the corner and are getting ready for a new leg of growth in the U.S. and perhaps around the world?

 

 

 

 

 

(VIDEO) Black Friday Crowds Line Up at the Target Store in Medina, MN – Midnight Opening Thanksgiving Night

TARGET, Medina, MN on Black Friday 2001 – Thanksgiving night just before midnight…there’s a surprisingly very large crowd patiently waiting in line outside of the Target in Medina, MN.  Check out the brief one minute video below of the crowds!  This is the official kick-off to the Black Friday sales push by all retailers for the Christmas season.  I was caught off guard at the size of the crowd – this is Medina!  (Medina, MN is located just west of Plymouth and south of Maple Grove).  It is about 20-25 minutes northwest of downtown Minneapolis.

Bank of America Posts Solid 3rd Quarter Profit – But Was It All Due to Accounting Gimmicks?

Bank of America just posted its 3rd quarter financial results and it appears to have been a very solid quarter upon first blush.  However, there’s lots of language about how they accounted for various monies.  I’m not an accounting expert.

Profit swung to $6.2 billion this quarter which was a dramatic improvement from the $7.3 billion loss reported during Q310.  Revenues were also up 6% to $28.7 billion.  It all sounds very impressive and perhaps the bank is finally on the mend after the housing market crash.

CEO Brian Moynihan is quoted in the companies press release as saying, “This quarter’s results reflect several actions we took that highlight our ongoing transformation toward becoming a leaner, more focused company,” said Chief Executive Officer Brian Moynihan. “The diversity and depth in our customer and client offerings provided some resiliency in a very challenging environment.”

There have been some reports out this morning challenging Bank of America’s earnings report calling it accounting gimmickry.  No surprise Zero Hedge deconstructs Bank of America’s earnings.  Even the Wall Street Journal is calling in to question, not only Bank of America’s earnings, but the earnings from all the banks in general.  They are using this term called Debt Valuation Adjustment.  That accounting term I suspect was created by the masters at one of the big consulting and accounting firms.  It’s just a guess, but it seems like the DVA is open to a lot of subjective judgment calls and frankly probably can’t be trusted.