Dodd-Frank QRM Definition: Congress Prepares to Effectively Require 20% Down Payments for Home Purchases

As part of the financial regulatory overhaul, otherwise known as Dodd-Frank, Congress will be instituting new regulations that will require 20% down payments for home purchases, or if buyer’s put down less than 20%, then the bank must retain 5% of the risk to those mortgages.  The National Association of Realtors (NAR) and others are currently lobbying against this rule as they rightly state, in my opinion, that this will great hinder any semblance of a housing recovery.  My opinion is it would make a challenging market grind lower and slower.

I realize there are many who say it’s high time we get back to 20% down payments.  And given the news that almost 30% of the transactions across the country are cash transactions, perhaps now’s the time to institute this.  However, very few transactions close with 20% down payments.  If you want to kill the economy, go ahead.  Kill it.

Here’s Inman’s take on the QRM Definition debate.  If you want a more technical or legal look at the Dodd-Frank QRM Definition, check out AllReg’s commentary by Marissa Aquila, Esq. Vice President & Senior Counsel, Bankers Advisory, Inc.

Banks aren’t going to take the deal to take on 5% of the risk.  This will likely effectively push down payments to 20%.  If you do that, the housing market will come to a stop.

I’d love to hear what you think.  Please leave a comment or two!

National Association of Realtors Raises Annual Dues by $40 – Time to Thin the Herd?

I for one am happy to see the National Association of Realtors raise its dues by $40.   Realtors must now pay $120 per year instead of $80 per year to NAR.  I am sure Realtors everywhere are going to be all riled up about this price hike.  Frankly, they should have doubled it and that would have been a good start.  Perhaps we will eliminate a 100,000 – 200,000 Realtors across the country because of the $40 hike…I’m not kidding.

Many local associations across the country are against the hike because they won’t get their dues as people will start fleeing the business.  (I’ve not yet read a comment from the Minnesota Association or the Minneapolis Association). What the public doesn’t understand is that the real estate business is built around shear numbers and not necessarily quality.

The way the real estate model works is the brokers, local/state/national associations just want bodies…lots of bodies.  They need lots of them to pay their dues.  That’s unfortunately, a big driver in this business.  It’s no wonder the public has such a low regard for Realtors.  Is it not justified based upon the business models the associations and brokers have set up?

The National Association of Realtors says they need more money to lobby politicians to defend private property rights that are under attack as well as to defend the industry.  I believe they need the money to defend the MID – mortgage interest deduction.  The is the mother load in the real estate industry.  I will write more on this in the future, but this is couched as a benefit for home ownership, and there’s no doubt it is, but in reality, I believe it’s a big Realtor subsidy and there is NO WAY the National Association of Realtors is going to let that go quietly in to the night.

What I’d like to know is given the U.S. government debt problem, spending problem, entitlement problem, is there not one group in the country that can stand up and take a leadership position on this?  Everyone wants everyone else to cut.  The Realtors are no different.  Perhaps they want to see reform in some other areas, but they say DO NOT TOUCH the MORTGAGE INTEREST DEDUCTION.  I say it’s time to put that deduction on the table now.  Everyone says we shouldn’t do this now especially since the housing market is so fragile.  I think they should do it now and get it over with.  I used to think we’d see another almost immediate 10-15% reduction in home prices, but now I’m not so sure.  I think there’s 5-10% downside risk already.  Would removing the MID make that any worse?  Not sure.

Watch for more turmoil from the Realtors.   I’m sure many will enjoy watching the implosion…especially the guys on the discussion board at Calculated Risk blog which I enjoy reading.

Twin Cities Real Estate Market Activity Report – Week of April 25, 2011

The Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors is out with the latest weekly report.  We are continuing on the same trend that we’ve seen for several weeks now.  Overall new listings are down about 20% compared to last year.  Pending sales are also down about 20% compared to last year.

Last year that this time was when we saw the biggest ramp in new listings as well as pending sales as everyone was racing toward the finish line before the housing market was closed for the rest of the year.  In case you’re reading this for the first time and haven’t seen some of my other posts, the housing market collapsed last year after the home buyer tax credit went away.  We are only now starting to recover from that man made disaster.

Click here for the full report.  Nice homes priced well are in very, very short supply.  For most of the market it remains a buyers market because most of the inventory is considered junk, tired, old, out of date.  A few existing homes are really nice and even fewer are really nice and priced right.

4 Cities with Steep Housing Discounts – Minneapolis, MN

The National Association of Realtors just published a brief article on the 4 housing markets that have seen prices fall particularly hard in the past 6 months.  Those cities are Atlanta, Seattle, Minneapolis and Detroit.

From the article regarding Minneapolis, MN

Despite only seeing moderate gains during the housing boom, Minneapolis has still felt the housing slump like other markets. Since peaking in April 2006, housing values in Minneapolis have dropped 34 percent–8 percent of that loss alone has come over the last six months. Homes in Minneapolis spend an average of 45 days on the market before getting the first price cut, which averages about 9 percent, according to Trulia.

For more on home prices see the Case-Shiller Index.

Twin Cities Home Prices – Are We Back to 2000?

According to the just released Case-Shiller Home Price Index, the Minneapolis area has dropped by 33% from the peak so far.  It does appear to be up from the bottom in early 2009 but we may well be headed to testing new low prices again at some point.

Calculated Risk has an excellent update on the Case-Shiller Index as well as information regarding the National Association of REALTORS possibly overstating housing sales data.  The reason the last item is important is if it turns out they have overstated sales, then the months supply of houses for sale will likely be substantially higher than it is currently being reported.

People make buying and selling decisions in part based upon this data.  If the National Association of REALTORS is to be the Voice of Real Estate in America, we better be able to trust the data that is reported.  This will take time to play out but perhaps by late spring or summer there will be some resolution to the discrepancy in the reported data.

National Association of REALTORS Overstating Housing Sales Data?

Logo of the National Association of Realtors.

Image via Wikipedia

Calculated Risk reported on this last week as CoreLogic had noted that they have quite a discrepancy between their data and the National Association of REALTORS data regarding home sales.  CoreLogic figures the NAR has been over reporting sales data by 15-20%.

According to this story in the Wall Street Journal today, even the National Association of REALTORS has acknowledged that they are doing a review and will publish the findings in a few months.  If you read the story, you will see why the numbers probably are not accurate.  They use models to estimate sales and some of those models are based upon various MLSes.  Well, the MLSes across the country are consolidating and it’s not exactly clear any longer what data they represent given the consolidation.

The national home sales data seems to me to be a little like the US Government’s Federal Unemployment Report…can they really give an accurate picture of unemployment in America with 300 million people?  It’s all a little fuzzy.

Now that said, on a local basis, I believe most markets are getting accurate data from their local Boards of REALTORS and MLSes.  For example, in the Twin Cities, we have one of the best associations in the country with regard to reporting home sales data responsively and accurately.   The Minneapolis Area Association of REALTORS does an outstanding job of that.

Yahoo! Real Estate Outsourcing Listings to Zillow

This has been coming for some  time, but Yahoo! Real Estate has officially handed off its real estate listings to Zillow.  Yahoo! Real Estate is still one of the most popular sites on the interest for real estate.  Zillow of course came on the seen several years ago with its innovative Zestimate that has become very popular, if not completely accurate.

Will real estate search eventually just become like regular search where you have Google and then everyone else?  Perhaps.  Realtor.com, Trulia, and now FrontDoor.com appear to be strong competitors.  Here’s the strengths of each as I see it:

  • Zillow:  Zestimate – everyone wants to know what their house is worth (or hope its worth)
  • Realtor.com: associated with the National Association of Realtors – tied to feet on the street
  • Trulia: innovative displays and analysis of your customized searches – great analytics for a free site
  • FrontDoor.com: HGTV’s site: I think this is the one to watch as they have surrounded this data with great content from HGTV and help home owners visual lifestyle…this is one to watch because I think it will catch people by surprise

No New Housing Market Subsidies in President Obama’s State of the Union Speech

Has the National Association of Realtors lost their power and influence?  President Obama announced lots of new initiatives, strategies and reorganizations, but there was no mention of helping housing except perhaps to consolidate 5 government agencies that have some involvement in housing.  Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think there should be any new initiatives for housing other than figure out what to do with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac which are still big problems that at some point will have to be addressed by our lawmakers.

One of the things the National Association of Realtors could do is to encourage a change to accounting rules and allow investors to be able to accelerate their depreciation for investment real estate.

 

Pending Home Sales Improve by 3.5% – National Association of Realtors

NAR just published the latest data for pending home sales for November.

According to Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors…

All the indicator trends are pointing to a gradual housing recovery,” Yun said. “Home price prospects will vary depending largely upon local job market conditions. The national median home price, however, is expected to remain stable even with a continuing flow of distressed properties coming onto the market, as long as there is a steady demand of financially healthy home buyers.

It looks like a slow and steady recovery is in the offing.  That doesn’t mean there won’t be some very challenging times ahead for certain segments of various markets.

Existing Housing Sales Increased by 7% in April 2010 – Prices Rose by 4%

The latest housing stats are out from NAR for April 2010 existing home sales.   They show continued signs of improvement in the housing market.  The commentary in this article continues to cast doubt on whether or not the recovery in sales and prices can continue now that the Federal Government’s tax credit has expired.

I suspect there will be an ongoing, lagging effect of the tax credit expiring, but the real estate market is like an ocean liner….it can’t turn sharply, but once it does, it tends to start to carry it’s own momentum forward.

The housing market remains fragmented by the various price ranges.  Locally we continue to see improvement in activity for homes under $500,000.   Homes priced above that continue to struggle in this market.   There are sales, but they are much harder to come by.  It very well could take another year or two before we see a definitive improvement in the $500-$750k category.